[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 25 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 26 09:52:35 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.9    0816UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been High over the last 24 hours 
with Region 2371 (N12W53) the source of a M7.9 flare at 0816UT. 
This flare had an associated partial halo CME which after initial 
assessment has an earthward directed component with possible 
arrival time in mid to late in the UT day 27Jun. Region 2371 
remained unchanged at 540 millionths of the solar hemisphere 
but has decreased in magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed has 
remained quite strong being above 650km/s for 00UT-10UT after 
which it has gradually declined to be just less than 550km/s 
at the time of this report. The IMF Bz component was predominantly 
northward between 00UT-05UT. Between 05UT and 14UT Bz underwent 
some sustained southward excursions reaching a maximum of -10nT. 
Bz currently fluctuating between +/-3nT at the time of this report. 
Solar energetic protons >10MeV have just risen above the threshold 
level of 10pfu. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate 
for the next 2 days with the chance of High activity while region 
2371 remains on disk. Low solar activity expected for 28Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   23455322
      Darwin              19   23445322
      Townsville          25   23555332
      Learmonth           32   23556522
      Alice Springs       24   23555322
      Norfolk Island      13   13344222
      Culgoora            19   23454322
      Gingin              25   23455433
      Camden              21   23455322
      Canberra            14   12444321
      Melbourne           23   23455422
      Launceston          26   23555432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    42   22666542
      Casey               21   33444442
      Mawson              42   34655554
      Davis               45   33554566

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gingin              90   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Melbourne           82   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             31                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   4343 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun    45    Minor Storm
28 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 24 June and 
is current for 24-26 Jun. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours with an Active to Minor Storm period between 
07UT and 18UT. In the IPS magnetometer data for 25 Jun, a weak 
(12nT) impulse was observed at 0933UT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next 24 hours. Active to Minor Storm conditions 
forecast for 27Jun-28June due to an estimated CME arrival 27Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2020UT 21/06, Ended at 0510UT 24/06

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jun      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
28 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last 
24 hours. HF conditions are expected to improve over next 24 
hours as recent geomagnetic activity subsides, however with possible 
geomagnetic storm conditions forecast for 27Jun-28Jun degraded 
HF comm's can be expected on these days. Fair to poor conditions 
are expected at high latitude regions due to anticipated Polar 
Cap Absorption event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed during local day and night for 
the majority of the AUS/NZ region due to recent geomagnetic activity. 
HF conditions are expected to improve over the next 24 hours 
with occasional depressed periods for Northern AUS, Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes 
and depressed MUF's of ~25% expected for 27Jun-28Jun to expected 
geomagnetic storm conditions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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