[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 25 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 26 09:52:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.9 0816UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been High over the last 24 hours
with Region 2371 (N12W53) the source of a M7.9 flare at 0816UT.
This flare had an associated partial halo CME which after initial
assessment has an earthward directed component with possible
arrival time in mid to late in the UT day 27Jun. Region 2371
remained unchanged at 540 millionths of the solar hemisphere
but has decreased in magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed has
remained quite strong being above 650km/s for 00UT-10UT after
which it has gradually declined to be just less than 550km/s
at the time of this report. The IMF Bz component was predominantly
northward between 00UT-05UT. Between 05UT and 14UT Bz underwent
some sustained southward excursions reaching a maximum of -10nT.
Bz currently fluctuating between +/-3nT at the time of this report.
Solar energetic protons >10MeV have just risen above the threshold
level of 10pfu. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
for the next 2 days with the chance of High activity while region
2371 remains on disk. Low solar activity expected for 28Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 21 23455322
Darwin 19 23445322
Townsville 25 23555332
Learmonth 32 23556522
Alice Springs 24 23555322
Norfolk Island 13 13344222
Culgoora 19 23454322
Gingin 25 23455433
Camden 21 23455322
Canberra 14 12444321
Melbourne 23 23455422
Launceston 26 23555432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 42 22666542
Casey 21 33444442
Mawson 42 34655554
Davis 45 33554566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 90 (Minor storm)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Melbourne 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4343 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 45 Minor Storm
28 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 24 June and
is current for 24-26 Jun. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed
over the last 24 hours with an Active to Minor Storm period between
07UT and 18UT. In the IPS magnetometer data for 25 Jun, a weak
(12nT) impulse was observed at 0933UT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours. Active to Minor Storm conditions
forecast for 27Jun-28June due to an estimated CME arrival 27Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2020UT 21/06, Ended at 0510UT 24/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Fair Fair-poor Poor
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last
24 hours. HF conditions are expected to improve over next 24
hours as recent geomagnetic activity subsides, however with possible
geomagnetic storm conditions forecast for 27Jun-28Jun degraded
HF comm's can be expected on these days. Fair to poor conditions
are expected at high latitude regions due to anticipated Polar
Cap Absorption event.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed during local day and night for
the majority of the AUS/NZ region due to recent geomagnetic activity.
HF conditions are expected to improve over the next 24 hours
with occasional depressed periods for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes
and depressed MUF's of ~25% expected for 27Jun-28Jun to expected
geomagnetic storm conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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