[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 15 issued 2356 UT on 21 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 22 09:56:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: *RED*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0145UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.6 0240UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.8 0944UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1822UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate during 21 June with
M-class flares from regions 2371 and 2367, the largest being
an M3.8 from region 2367 at 0944UT. A long duration M2.6 flare
from region 2371 towards the centre of the disk was associated
with type II/IV radio sweeps and a full halo fast moving CME.
This is the third CME in the past few days expected to be geoeffective.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1539UT on 21 Jun.
This was due to the first of the three CMEs forecast to impact
the Earth. The IMF Bz has been predominantly northward so far
with this CME and the effects have been relatively mild so far.
The other two CMEs are forecast to impact the Earth later in
the UT day of 22 June with more significant effects. There has
been an increase in the flux of solar energetic protons during
21 June associated with the recent flare/CME activity observed
during 21 June. The flux is anticipated to remain elevated for
the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11100312
Darwin 6 11100422
Townsville 6 11100422
Learmonth 6 11100422
Alice Springs 4 11000322
Norfolk Island 4 11200312
Culgoora 4 11100312
Gingin 4 00100322
Camden 3 11000312
Canberra 2 00000311
Melbourne 3 11100311
Launceston 4 11100312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 5 01100332
Mawson 10 12112225
Davis 6 12221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 50 Storm Levels
23 Jun 50 Storm Levels
24 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 19 June and
is current for 21-22 Jun. In the IPS magnetometer data for 21
Jun, a weak (19nT) impulse was observed at 1646UT. This was due
to the first of the three CMEs forecast to impact the Earth.
The IMF Bz has been predominantly northward so far with this
CME and the effects have been relatively mild so far. The other
two CMEs are forecast to impact the Earth later in the UT day
of 22 June with more significant effects. Mostly unsettled to
active levels are expected during the first half of the UT day
of 22 June with minor storm periods possible for high latitudes.
Major to severe storm levels are possible with the arrival of
the two other CMEs forecast to arrive in the latter half of the
UT day of 22 June. Storm levels are expected to continue into
23 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
23 Jun Poor Poor Poor
24 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions have been observed during
21 June with Spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed at some
stations, possibly further degrading COMMS. Mostly fair to poor
conditions are expected for 22 June as geomagnetic activity levels
increase during the day. Degraded COMMS are expected to continue
into 23 June with the anticipated continuing elevated geomagnetic
activity. Poor conditions are expected at high latitude regions
due to a Polar Cap Absorption event resulting from elevated flux
levels of energetic solar protons.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 17 was issued
on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions
have been observed during 21 June with Spread-F and sporadic-E
conditions observed at some stations, possibly further degrading
COMMS. Mostly fair to poor conditions are expected for 22 June
as geomagnetic activity levels increase during the day. Degraded
COMMS are expected to continue into 23 June with the anticipated
continuing elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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