[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 15 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 13 09:31:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 12 June. The
largest X-ray flare was a C4.1 from active region 2360(N15W69).
Expect Low level flare activity over the next three days with
a chance of M-class flares. ACE SWEPAM data indicates a weak
shock occurred in the solar wind at 12/1216UT, likely due to
the glancing blow from the CME/erupting filament occurring on
09 June. ACE EPAM data also indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 12/0810UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Solar wind speed
ranged between 450 to 550 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+6/-4 nT during this period. Expect the solar wind to gradually
decrease from current levels over the UT day, 13 June, however
will likely increase again late in the UT day on 14 June due
to coronal hole influence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 3 11102211
Townsville 5 11113212
Learmonth 5 11113211
Alice Springs 3 11102211
Norfolk Island 3 11102111
Culgoora 4 11112211
Gingin 4 11102221
Camden 6 12312211
Canberra 1 01002100
Melbourne 4 12112211
Launceston 4 12112211
Hobart 1 01100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 01111100
Casey 16 22212631
Mawson 9 33223221
Davis 57 22223391
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jun 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to to be Unsettled
to Quiet during the UT day, 13 June, due to lingering effects
of 09 June CME. Expect activity to increase from Quiet to Unsettled/Active
levels late in the UT day, 14 June, due to an increase in the
solar wind speed associated with a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions have been observed at a number of stations during
12 June which may have resulted in intermittent degraded HF conditions.
Spread-F conditions are expected at times during 13 June. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions have been observed at a number of stations during
12 June which may have resulted in intermittent degraded HF conditions,
particularly in the southern Australian regions. Periods of Spread-F
conditions are expected during 13 June, particularly in the southern
Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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