[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 15 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 10 09:31:25 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
X-ray flare was a C5 from active region 2360 at 09/0353UT. Expect 
Very Low to Low solar activity with a slight chance of Moderate 
activity over the next three days. The solar wind speed is currently 
just over 600km/s and reached 705km/s at 09/0324UT. The Bz component 
of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT. Expect the solar wind to remain 
elevated over the UT day, 10 June. On 11-12 June expect the solar 
wind to gradually decrease to nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33212322
      Darwin               8   33212222
      Townsville           9   33212322
      Learmonth           10   33312232
      Alice Springs        9   33212322
      Norfolk Island       6   32202221
      Culgoora             9   33212322
      Gingin              11   33302332
      Camden               9   33212322
      Canberra             6   32202221
      Launceston          12   33313332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   34313331
      Casey               13   43322332
      Mawson              38   35545364
      Davis               38   34434275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              69   (Active)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           68   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             32   4364 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active
11 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled to Active 
today, 10 June, with a possibility of Minor Storm levels at higher 
latitudes. On 11-12 June expect conditions to gradually return 
to Unsettled to Quiet levels as the coronal hole rotates from 
its geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
12 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 14 was issued 
on 8 June and is current for 9-10 Jun. Expect HF conditions to 
be near predicted monthly values with minor depressions observed 
at local night due to geomagnetic storm activity for the next 
two days, returning to predicted monthly values on 12 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   271000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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