[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 15 issued 2342 UT on 10 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 11 10:42:04 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C3.3 flare from region 2257 (N07W34) at
1133UT. Region 2257 size and complexity remained relatively stable
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed was ~400km/s at 00UT
and increased slowly over the UT day to be 489km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between +/-7nT with no significant
sustained southward excursions. Solar activity is expected to
be at Low levels for the next three days with the chance of M-class
flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22223312
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 8 22123312
Townsville 13 33324223
Learmonth 10 23233312
Alice Springs - --------
Norfolk Island 6 12222212
Culgoora 7 22222311
Gingin - --------
Camden 8 22223311
Canberra 5 12122211
Hobart 9 13233311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Davis 21 44434432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2121 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 7 Quiet
13 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to Enhanced MUF's observed for low to high latitudes.
Some periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed across all regions during
the last 24 hours. MUF's are expected to be near predicted monthly
values with enhancements of 10%-20% at times and occasional disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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