[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 4 10:30:35 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0947UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels over the 
last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed 
during this period from region 2253. The M1.1 flare from region 
2253(S07E09) peaked at 0947 UT. No Type II radio burst or CME 
could be associated with the flare. Solar wind speed showed a 
gradual increase from nearly 380 km/s to around 520 km/s by 1000 
UT and then a gradual decrease to around 450 km/s by 2300 UT 
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +8/-10 nT by 
1100 UT and then stayed mostly positive around +5nT through the 
rest of the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
for the next three days with some possibility of M-class event, 
especially from region 2253. Due to the effect of a coronal hole, 
solar wind stream may stay moderately strong over the next 2 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to active 
with isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33332111
      Cocos Island         7   33322010
      Darwin              11   34332112
      Townsville          13   44332121
      Learmonth            8   -3332110
      Alice Springs        9   33332111
      Norfolk Island       7   33321011
      Culgoora            11   34332121
      Gingin              11   43332111
      Camden              13   34432121
      Canberra             7   33321011
      Hobart              11   34431011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    11   33343110
      Casey               42   57554232
      Mawson              28   64544221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3111 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan    10    Unsettled to Active
05 Jan    10    Unsettled to Active
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, mostly quiet to active conditions, with 
some minor storm periods on high latitudes, were observed today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 4 and 5 January 
due to the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole. Conditions may decline to unsettled and 
then quiet levels on 6 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods 
of minor depressions in mid latitude regions today. Mostly normal 
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days with the 
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 04 and 05 January, 
especially on the high latitude locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods 
of minor depressions in Northern Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days 
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 04 and 
05 January, especially in the Southern parts of the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    63200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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