[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 2 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Three low C-class flares were observed from region 2253(S07E53).
The larger ones of these flares were two C2.1 flares, the first
one of which peaked at 0507 UT and the second one at 0730 UT.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from nearly 580 km/s
to around 440 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component
of IMF mostly stayed close to the normal value with minor variations
on both sides during this period. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11112112
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 6 22112113
Townsville 4 21112112
Learmonth 4 22012111
Alice Springs 4 11112112
Norfolk Island 3 11102111
Culgoora 4 11112112
Gingin 5 22112212
Camden 4 11112112
Canberra 2 11101002
Hobart 5 22212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11111012
Casey 19 45432223
Mawson 17 33323235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2211 3311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 6 Quiet
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed today
due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. This effect is expected to gradually weaken
over the next 24 hours. Due to this weakening effect of the coronal
hole solar wind stream, geomagnetic activity may remain at quiet
to unsettled levels on 02 January. Conditions may again rise
to unsettled and possibly active levels on 03 and 04 January
due the possibility of strengthening of solar wind stream again
on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in the low latitude regions today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild MUF enhancements 02
January. There is some possibility of minor MUF depressions on
03 and 04 January, especially on high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild MUF enhancements 02
January. There is some possibility of minor MUF depressions on
03 and 04 January, especially in the Southern parts of the Aus/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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