[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 26 10:30:38 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
25 Dec. Only C-class flares were observed during the past 24
hours, with the strongest C6.9 observed at 25/1749 UT from Region
2472. Results from our model run for the coronal mass ejection
(CME) observed around 24/0636 UT associated with eruption from
Region 2473 (S16E38) suggests that this CME may cause a weak
glancing blow at Earth on early UT day 27 Dec. The propagation
speed of the CME is around 750 km/s. No new earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery for the UT day.
The 2-day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for low solar activity with
C-class flares likely and a very low possibility of M class flares.
The solar winds in the past 24 hours has remained steady around
500 km/hr. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-7
nT and Bt was between 5 and 10 nT. These moderately high solar
wind speeds are the lingering effects of the high speed streams
emanating from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. The 24 hour
outlook (26 Dec) is for the solar winds to gradually trend towards
ambient levels as the effects of the coronal hole wanes. Latter
on UT day 27 Dec, there may be weak enhancements in solar winds
due to the possible arrival of the glancing blow from the 24
Dec CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 4 12111211
Darwin 6 21213212
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 22323222
Alice Springs 7 21223212
Norfolk Island 5 12212221
Gingin 8 22223222
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 6 32212111
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 22314211
Casey 27 55543233
Mawson 17 33433324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Melbourne 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2231 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day
25 Dec). The 2-day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for the geomagnetic
conditions to possibly remain mostly quiet with occasional unsettled
periods. There is also the isolated possibility of minor storms
since the solar wind speeds are still moderately high and so
a favourable IMF Bz could trigger minor storms. A further a possible
weak enhancements in geomagnetic activity could occur on the
UT day 27 Dec with the arrival of the glancing blow from the
24 Dec CME
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected over
most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 24
December and is current for 24-26 Dec. Observed MUF's for the
UT day 25 Dec were slightly above the predicted monthly values.
The 2-day outlook (25-26 Dec) is for MUFs to remain strong, mostly
remaining slightly above the expected predicted monthly values.
The MUF conditions are forecasted due to strong incoming ionising
solar flux radiation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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