[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 12 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 11 December.
The largest flare was a C5.6 from active region 2465 (S06E16).
No Earth-directed CME expected, note limited LASCO imagery available
at this time. Expect Low solar activity over the next three days
with a slight chance of M-class flares. ACE spacecraft shows
a solar wind speed varying between 600 and 700 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-5nT over the last 24 hours. Expect the
solar wind to gradually decline over the UT day, 12 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 22333322
Cocos Island 10 22223421
Darwin 10 22233322
Townsville 12 22333323
Learmonth 15 32243432
Alice Springs 11 22333322
Norfolk Island 9 22332222
Gingin 13 32233432
Canberra 9 22332222
Hobart 13 32433322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 28 23555522
Casey 29 45544433
Mawson 44 45454565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Melbourne 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23 3544 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec 6 Quiet
14 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
Quiet to Unsettled during the UT day, 11 December with a few
isolated periods of Active levels due to an elevated solar wind
speed. Expect conditions to slowly return to mostly Quiet levels
during the UT day, 12 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 35 Depressed 15%-25% to near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 11 December
and is current for 12 Dec only. HF conditions were near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed during the UT day, 11
December, over the Australian region. Isolated periods of blanketing
sporadic-E conditions were observed in the Australasian region.
Expect near predicted MUFs to slightly depressed today, 12 December,
followed by a return to near predicted MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 577 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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