[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 15 issued 2350 UT on 30 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 31 09:50:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0342UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2403 (S15W89) the source of a M1.1 class flare at 0330UT.
Region 2403 is now located on the west limb yet still has the
potential for further M-class events. Solar wind speed gradually
declined over the UT day due to diminishing coronal hole effects,
from 475km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report.
Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to
increase on 01Sep-02Sep due to another equatorial positioned
coronal hole that crossed the central meridian early in the UT
day 30Aug. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for
the next 24 hours with Low to Very Low solar activity for 01Sep-02Sep.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
30/0620UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 1 11100010
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 0 01000001
Culgoora 1 11100011
Camden 1 11100011
Gingin 2 11110011
Canberra 0 10000001
Melbourne 1 11100011
Launceston 1 11100011
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 7 34210012
Mawson 18 43323153
Davis 26 34323165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 5224 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Sep 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected for the next 24-36 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with the chance of Active periods
late on 01Sep due to possible coronal hole effects. Active conditions
with a chance of Minor Storm periods for 02Sep should coronal
hole effects eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
02 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Regional foF2 values are 10%-40% below long term predicted
monthly values. Ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted
values is expected to take longer than usual due to possibility
of further geomagnetic activity around 01Sep-02Sep and Low solar
activity forecast for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
01 Sep 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
02 Sep 15 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 29 August
and is current for 29-31 Aug. Depressed ionospheric support observed
across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours. Similar ionospheric
support expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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