[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 22 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.4    0948 UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Active Region 2403 produced three M class solar flares 
during 21 Aug. The largest flare was a M1.4 event peaking at 
09:48 UT. This region will likely produce more M class flares 
during the next 48 hours. A Type II radio frequency burst was 
observed in association with the 09:48 UT flare. SOHO LASCO coronagrams 
showing the CME are becoming available at the time of this report. 
AR 2403 is located in the Eastern Hemisphere and the CME will 
probably miss or graze the Earth. GONG H alpha solar images recorded 
a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) in a geoeffective location 
in the North-West quadrant during 20 UT on 21 Aug. Further analysis 
will be undertaken when more observations become available. Coronal 
Hole 684 has almost reached the geoeffective location and a weak 
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) with subsequent fast wind 
will probably impact Earth during the next 2 days. The solar 
wind speed showed a declining trend from 500 km/s to 400 km/s 
during 21 Aug. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 6 nT and 
the Bz component has been fluctuating between about -5 nT and 
+6 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11202111
      Cocos Island         2   11211010
      Darwin               4   12202012
      Townsville           4   12202112
      Learmonth            5   11312111
      Alice Springs        3   11202011
      Norfolk Island       1   11101010
      Culgoora             3   11202111
      Gingin               5   11312021
      Canberra             1   01101110
      Launceston           6   22203211
      Hobart               4   12202111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   11201100
      Casey               11   34422111
      Mawson              15   24424123
      Davis               14   23433124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   3322 5233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug    18    Active
24 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 21 Aug. They 
are expected to remain quiet for most of 22 Aug. A weak CIR followed 
by fast wind will probably arrive at Earth during the next 48 
hours. The CIR will cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation continue to 
remain unusually depressed, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Regional T indices are generally 10%-50% below the long term 
predicted monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    35    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Aug    40    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Aug    40    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 21 
August and is current for 21-22 Aug. Conditions for HF radio 
wave propagation were depressed throughout the Australian region 
during 21 August. The depressions were up to 50% at the low latitude 
stations Cocos Island, Niue and Darwin, and up to 30% at the 
Australian mid-latitude stations. The conditions are expected 
to remain unusually depressed during coming days. However, they 
are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted values during 
the 4 week period approaching the September equinox.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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