[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 15 issued 2349 UT on 04 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 5 09:49:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels on the 4 August. 
The solar wind continued to gradually decline from 500 km/s to 
400 km during the last 24 hrs. The Bz component of IMF varied 
between +/-5 nT and Bt reached levels of 7 nT during this period. 
The solar wind is expected to further decline over the next 24 
- 48 hours (5-6 Aug) and thereafter (7 Aug) expected to rise 
due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels 
of solar activity may be expected for 5 August with some possibility 
of an C-class flare on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112012
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               4   22111012
      Townsville           4   12212012
      Learmonth            6   12222122
      Alice Springs        5   12212022
      Norfolk Island       2   02102011
      Culgoora             3   12112011
      Gingin               6   12112232
      Camden               4   12212011
      Canberra             2   01102011
      Launceston           6   12223112
      Hobart               4   12113011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   01122001
      Casey                7   23222122
      Mawson              24   34332246
      Davis               17   24332235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2331 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     6    Quiet
06 Aug    10    Initially quiet with a possibility of increased 
                activity toward the end of the UT day
07 Aug    20    Unsettled to Active with a chance of minor storms 
                at high latitudes

COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with 
unsettled periods for the next two days (5-6 Aug). The magnetic 
activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels with 
possible minor storm periods at high latitudes on the 7 August 
due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions have been observed at times 
during 4 August. These conditions are mainly due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Moderately degraded conditions are expected 
at times on 5 August, with slightly improved conditions for 6 
and 7 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    55    Depressed 15-20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    60    Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    60    Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 4 August 
and is current for 4-5 Aug. Moderate depressions have been observed 
across the Australasian region during 4 August. These conditions 
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Moderately 
degraded conditions are expected on 5 August, with slightly improved 
conditions for 6 and 7 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 501 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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