[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 3 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed 
over the last 24 hours. As anticipated, the solar wind stream 
remained strong due to the continued effect of a coronal hole. 
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 550 and 650 km/s during 
the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between 
+/-5 nT, staying northwards for relatively longer periods of 
time and Bt stayed around 6 nT during this period. The effect 
of this coronal hole is expected to gradually decline over the 
next 1 - 2 days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated C-class 
event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22313211
      Cocos Island         4   22212200
      Darwin               6   12313111
      Townsville           7   22313211
      Learmonth            8   32313210
      Alice Springs        6   22313200
      Norfolk Island       5   22203111
      Culgoora             7   21313211
      Gingin               8   32214210
      Camden               8   21314201
      Canberra             4   20203100
      Launceston           8   21314211
      Hobart               8   21314220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   11203200
      Casey               11   33323222
      Mawson              23   54533323
      Davis               17   43533222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3211 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     9    Unsettled declining to Quiet
04 Aug     8    Quiet
05 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Bz remaining mostly positive, the effect of the high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole did not 
increase the geomagnetic activity to expected levels today. The 
effect of the coronal hole is declining gradually, however geomagnetic 
activity may still remain at unsettled levels on 3rd August. 
On 4th and 5th August, the geomagnetic activity is expected to 
stay at Quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 40% have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. These conditions are mainly due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux and minor rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (3, 4 and 
5 August) with slightly higher possibility of degradations and 
MUF depressions on 3 August due to expected mild rise in geomagnetic 
activity on this day and continued low levels of ionising radiation 
throughout this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    60    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Aug    64    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
05 Aug    64    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 40% have been seen across the 
Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions 
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux and minor 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next 
three days (3, 4 and 5 August) with slightly higher possibility 
of degradations and MUF depressions on 3 August due to expected 
mild rise in geomagnetic activity on this day and continued low 
levels of ionising radiation throughout this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 553 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list