[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 15 issued 2338 UT on 29 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 30 09:38:21 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just 
a single C-class event, a C1.0 flare from region 2337 (S08W90) 
at 1634UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 260km/s to 340km/s 
over the UT day. The Bz component of IMF has been predominantly 
southward over the last 24 hours, reaching only a maximum southward 
value of -3nT. Possible increase in solar wind speed velocity 
over the next 24hrs due to the influence of a positive polarity 
coronal hole. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11020101
      Cocos Island         1   11010011
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           2   11021101
      Learmonth            4   11121112
      Alice Springs        2   01020101
      Norfolk Island       1   10010001
      Culgoora             2   11020101
      Gingin               2   00021012
      Camden               2   11020101
      Canberra             1   00020100
      Launceston           4   21021211
      Hobart               0   000---01    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   00042000
      Casey                3   12111111
      Mawson              10   12201225
      Davis                5   12311111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2122 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 May     5    Quiet
02 May     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible 
Unsettled to Active periods due to minor coronal hole effects. 
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 01May-02May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today for 
mid to high latitudes. Periods of enhanced MUF's at low latitudes. 
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
02 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over 
AUS/NZ regions. Variable ionospheric support observed at Equatorial 
and Northern AUS regions, enhanced during local day and minor 
depressions during local night. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    40100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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