[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 15 issued 2341 UT on 17 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 18 09:41:58 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares during 17 April
from regions 2324 and 2325 located in the NE quadrant. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly low with the chance
of moderate activity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
17 April. Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during 17 April
as a coronal hole wind stream gradually subsides and are presently
around 600 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to continue
to decline slowly over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 43332222
Cocos Island 8 33222221
Darwin 9 33322122
Townsville 11 43322222
Learmonth 11 33333221
Alice Springs 11 43322221
Norfolk Island 10 33332121
Culgoora 12 43332222
Gingin 11 42323222
Camden 12 43332222
Canberra 11 33332222
Launceston 19 44443232
Hobart 14 43432222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 44555321
Casey 16 44333232
Mawson 46 57544353
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Melbourne 148 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 38 5544 4455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to active levels were observed during 17 April
over the Australian region with storm periods at high latitudes
under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Storm levels
were observed at high latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels
are expected for 18 April with isolated active levels possible
as the coronal hole effects subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the small chance of SWFs. Slightly degraded conditions
may be observed at high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 298000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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