[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 15 issued 2349 UT on 15 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 16 09:49:02 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: *YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: There was some low level flaring during 15 April with 
a C7 flare from region 2321 located in the NE quadrant. No coronagraph 
imagery is currently available for this event. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed during 15 April. Solar wind speeds increased 
during 15 April under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream, 
reaching around 600 km/s. There were some isolated periods of 
southward IMF during 15 April, reaching around -10 nT. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to decline slowly over the next 
24-48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   23234342
      Cocos Island        13   23233342
      Darwin              16   33244332
      Townsville          17   33344332
      Learmonth           21   33245343
      Alice Springs       17   23245332
      Norfolk Island      12   22234332
      Culgoora             8   231-----
      Gingin              20   32235443
      Camden              16   23234343
      Canberra            13   23234332
      Launceston          21   23245443
      Hobart              18   23235343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    28   12156453
      Casey               21   34534332
      Mawson              40   24435375
      Davis               28   13445363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   0012 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr    14    Mostly unsettled with isolated active levels 
                possible
17 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels were observed during 15 
April in response to an increase in solar wind conditions under 
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Storm levels were 
observed at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled levels are expected 
for 16 April with isolated active levels possible as the coronal 
hole effects subside.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of SWFs. Some mild depressions are expected 
for mid-high latitude regions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr    75    Mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
                mild depressions for southern regions
17 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of SWFs. Some mild depressions are expected 
for southern regions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:   13.2 p/cc  Temp:    37800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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