[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 17 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C2.1 flare at
1927 UT from region 2158 (N16W81). Solar wind speed showed a
gradual decline from 450 to 400 km/s during the UT day today
while the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around
5 nT. Bz turned negative 2000 UT and staying negative around
-4nT at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to
stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of M-class activity during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Mostly quiet
with isolated unsettled periods
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 23221121
Cocos Island 4 22121111
Darwin 7 23221222
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 33221222
Alice Springs 5 22221121
Norfolk Island 5 22121121
Culgoora 6 23221112
Gingin 5 22221121
Camden 6 23221111
Canberra 3 12120011
Launceston 7 23221122
Hobart 6 32221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 12120011
Casey 11 34420022
Mawson 14 33320153
Davis 15 34321144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 12 Quiet to Active
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels today
with some unsettled periods. Geomagnetic activity may show enhancements
up to active levels on 17 September and up to unsettled levels
on 18 September. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at
quiet levels on 19 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed on 17 September and at times on 18
September. Normal conditions may be expected on 19 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
18 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 17 September
and at times on 18 September. Normal conditions may be expected
on 19 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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