[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 14 issued 2341 UT on 14 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 15 09:41:25 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0223UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
the largest flare being a M1.5 event from region 2157 (currently
at S15W58) at 0216UT. There is currently 6 spot groups on the
visible disk, of which region 2157 continues to decline while
region 2158 (N17W51) remains relatively stable. Two regions have
undergone some growth over the last 24 hours, these being region
2164 (S13W11) and 2166 (N12E45). Solar wind continued to decline
over the last 24 hours from being slightly greater than 600km/s
between 00UT-02UT to being just under 500km/s at the time of
this report. Bz remained northward for the majority of the UT
day, also declining in magnitude from +8nT to +3nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decline over the next 24 hours
with an expected increase in the latter half of the UT day on
16Sep. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the
next 3 days with the chance of further M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 3 12101102
Townsville 3 32100001
Learmonth 1 21100000
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11000001
Gingin 1 21000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 3 22111101
Davis 4 22111102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 10 4231 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 4 Quiet
16 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Sep 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for 15Sep-16Sep with possible Active periods
towards the end of the UT day 16Sep. Unsettled conditions expected
for 17Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions during local day and night. Normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and improving ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly
values for all regions over the next 2 days with with possible
disturbed periods and MUF depressions of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions on 16Sep-17Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 34900 K Bz: 13 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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