[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 14 issued 2355 UT on 12 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 13 09:55:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: No data avail.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN Data not avail Data not avail Data not avail
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with regions
2157 and 2158 being the source of numerous C-class events. The
largest events being a C9.5 at 0224UT, C3.3 at 2012UT from region
2157 and a C3.2 at 0955UT from region 2158. Of the two largest
regions currently on disc, regions 2157 and 2158 remain relatively
unchanged over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed underwent
a step increase at ~23UT on 11Sep from 350km/s to ~480 km/s due
to the arrival of the CME from 09Sep M4.5 flare. Bz fluctuated
between -14 and +11nT before its magnitude reduced to +/-5nT
between 00UT and 09UT. ACE EPAM data then indicated an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning today at 1510UT whereupon solar
wind speed increased from ~430km/s to be ~740km/s at the time
of this report. This increase was due to the arrival of the X-class
flare from 10Sep. Bz underwent southward excursions between 19UT
and 22UT of approx -20nT. Solar wind speed remains at strong
levels and further sustained southward periods for Bz are possible.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
3 days with the chance of further M-class events and possible
X-class.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 21 43222535
Cocos Island 13 32221434
Darwin 19 43222534
Townsville 23 43233535
Learmonth 26 43232635
Alice Springs 20 33222535
Norfolk Island 21 43222535
Culgoora 21 33232535
Gingin 23 43222545
Camden 21 33232535
Canberra 19 33-22435
Launceston 30 44333536
Hobart 19 34222435
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 26 34244535
Casey 37 55533554
Mawson 48 64333557
Davis 34 44443546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 57 (Unsettled)
Townsville 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg No data avail
Planetary No data avail
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg No data avail
Planetary No data avail/ 2433 2124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 45 Minor Storm
14 Sep 25 Active
15 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-13 Sep. Quiet to Minor Storm periods observed
over the last 24 hours with the arrival of the recent M and X
class CME's from region 2158. Minor Storm conditions possible
for 13Sep should Bz undergo sustained southward periods as the
CME passes over the earth in the next 12 hours. Active conditions
expected for 14Sep and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 15Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2014 1215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions
during local day and night with otherwise good ionospheric support
for all other regions except Antarctica due to a polar cap absorption
event. MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS and Northern
AUS regions and continued poor ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions over the next 24-48 hours due to increased geomagnetic
activity. Continued poorMUFs near predicted monthly values for
15Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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