[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 14 issued 2336 UT on 29 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:36:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0822UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1002UT possible lower European
M1.4 1435UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1621UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1850UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.3 2122UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2192 (S13W83) the known source of 5 M-class flares. The
largest event was a M2.3 event at 2122UT most likely also from
region 2192. Active region 2192 is expected to rotate off the
visible disk over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined
from ~450km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be Moderate to High for 30-Oct with the chance of further
M-class and possible X-class flares from AR 2192. Low to Moderate
Activity expected for 31Oct-01Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22110221
Cocos Island 2 11110120
Darwin 5 -3110221
Townsville 4 21111221
Learmonth 3 12100220
Alice Springs 4 21110221
Norfolk Island 2 11110111
Culgoora 2 21100111
Gingin 6 2-121320
Camden 4 22110221
Canberra 1 11100110
Launceston 5 22211221
Hobart 4 22210220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 33221210
Casey 15 35421222
Mawson 18 44323251
Davis 21 33452251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4223 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 7 Quiet
01 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the last 24
hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over the next
24 hours with possible Active periods at high latitudes. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for 31Oct-01Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) for
30-Oct to 31-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced to near predicted ionospheric support observed
at low latitudes. Near predicted ionospheric support observed
at mid to high latitudes. MUF's expected to be near predicted
values over the next two days as active region 2192 rotates off
the visible disk. Possible return to enhanced ionospheric support
for 01Nov. Chance of further sudden ionospheric disturbances
(SWFs) for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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