[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 14 issued 2348 UT on 27 Oct 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:48:13 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.9    0026UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0204UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0341UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0911UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.2    0941UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M6.7    1011UT  probable   lower  European
  X2.1    1447UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1742UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 188/141


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Moderate to High   Moderate to High   Moderate to High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            150/105            140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
region 2192 (S12W58) the source of numerous M-class and an X-class 
flare. The largest events being a X2.0 at 1447UT, M7.1 at 0034UT 
and M6.7 at 1009UT. LASCO imagery indicates no significant CME's 
were associated with the M-class flares. No significant change 
in region 2192's overall size or magnetic complexity over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind ranged between ~350km/s to ~450km/s 
over the UT day. Bz ranged between +6nT and -7nT with notable 
sustained southward periods between 06UT-10UT and 17UT-23UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be Moderate to High with the chance 
of further M-class and X-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22232222
      Cocos Island         5   21221211
      Darwin              10   32232223
      Townsville          11   32242232
      Learmonth            9   23232222
      Alice Springs       10   32232223
      Norfolk Island       7   22132222
      Culgoora             8   22232222
      Gingin               9   22232313
      Camden               9   22242222
      Canberra             7   22231222
      Launceston          13   33242233
      Hobart              10   23242222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    18   23362312
      Casey               19   35433323
      Mawson              23   44333345
      Davis               26   35553323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3223 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed for 
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for 28Oct-30Oct with possible isolated Active periods over the 
next 24 hours for mid to high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Oct   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced ionospheric support observed for all AUS/NZ 
regions during local day, continuing into local night for low 
latitude stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours. MUFs expected to return to near predicted monthly values 
on 30th October as the current large active region 2192 rotates 
off the visible disk. Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances 
(SWFs) over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    72100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list