[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 22 10:30:50 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 20/2255UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 199/151


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            210/161

COMMENT: AR 12192 (S13E27) produced the one M-class flare and 
a number of C-class flares. The region maintains its magnetic 
and spot complexity. AR 12193 (N04W16) is declining while the 
other two spot groups are stable. There is the possibility of 
high solar activity from AR 12192. No CMEs observed in the limited 
LASCO images. ACE data show the solar wind speed peaked at ~700 
km/s at 1308 UT and has since declined to 550 km/s. The north-south 
IMF range was +/-6 nT. The leading edge of a coronal hole is 
located at ~36 degrees west and may become geo-effective late 
22 Oct or 23 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22323222
      Cocos Island         7   21223221
      Darwin              10   32323222
      Townsville          10   32323222
      Learmonth           12   32224323
      Alice Springs       10   22323322
      Norfolk Island       8   12322232
      Culgoora            10   22333222
      Gingin              13   32323333
      Camden              10   22333222
      Canberra             8   22322222
      Launceston          15   33433332
      Hobart              11   23333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    28   22365532
      Casey               28   46533333
      Mawson              37   44434655
      Davis               31   44545533

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26   3344 4553     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    12    Quiet to unsettled
23 Oct    16    Quiet to active
24 Oct    13    Quiet to unsettled

COMMENT: Chance of active conditions late on 22 Oct due to recurrent 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
      08-15 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-35% 00-05, 10-12, 22-23 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
      20-30% 00-01 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressions of 15-30% 00-09 UT then near predicted
      monthly values. Perth MUFs also depressed 15-25%
      09-23 UT. Learmonth and Norfolk Is mostly near
      predicted monthly values 00-23 UT. Night spread F
      observed at Canberra, Hobart and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    95    Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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