[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 13 10:30:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
three C-class flares from region 2187 (S10E73), the largest a 
C2, peaking at 12/0515 UT. The solar wind speed declined from 
~~350 km/s to ~320 km/s. The total IMF rose gradually to around 
8 nT, while the Bz component varied mostly between +/-3 nT. Solar 
activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11123111
      Cocos Island         2   01102110
      Darwin               4   11112122
      Townsville           6   21123122
      Learmonth            4   11113111
      Alice Springs        5   11123012
      Norfolk Island       5   31022012
      Culgoora             5   21123111
      Gingin               4   11123110
      Camden               5   11123111
      Canberra             3   10023001
      Launceston           8   12234111
      Hobart               6   11233111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     8   02144000
      Casey                5   13212111
      Mawson               7   21212232
      Davis                5   21321120

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2333 3101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the 
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active 
conditions from 09-15 UT. Mostly quiet conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic. Conditions are expected to quiet to unsettled 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct    95    Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct    95    Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some enhanced daytime MUFs were observed at low latitudes, 
but otherwise were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected 
to be near monthly predicted values for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    41300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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