[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 11 10:30:24 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. A C3 
X-ray flare peaking at 10/1647 UT was associated with an earlier 
filament liftoff from the southwest quadrant which started around 
10/1530 UT. From the imagery available, the CME does not appear 
to be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed is around 350 km/s. 
The total IMF declined to around 6 nT and the Bz component has 
been mostly negative to -5 nT for the last 9 hours. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22100111
      Cocos Island         2   22100011
      Darwin               4   22101112
      Townsville           3   22101111
      Learmonth            3   22000212
      Alice Springs        3   22000102
      Norfolk Island       2   2200-011
      Culgoora             2   22000111
      Gingin               4   22100212
      Camden               3   22100111
      Canberra             1   21000001
      Launceston           4   22101211
      Hobart               2   22100101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   13110110
      Casey               11   44321112
      Mawson              27   36312255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   2343 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct     5    Quiet
12 Oct     5    Quiet
13 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Periods at storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some enhanced MUFS are still evident in southern Australia 
and Niue Is, but elsewhere have returned to be closer to monthly 
predicted values. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    47000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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