[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 10 10:30:24 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0143UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.4    0159UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0659UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Region 2182 (S15W56) produced several C-class flares and two 
M1 flares, the larger of these peaking at 09/0158 UT. The solar 
wind speed varied between 300-400 km/s. The total IMF remained 
between 6-10 nT most of the UT day, while the Bz component had 
a strong negative bias until around 22 UT. Solar activity is 
expected to be low for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class 
events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23322112
      Cocos Island         7   23212122
      Darwin               8   33222212
      Townsville           7   23322111
      Learmonth            7   23222112
      Alice Springs        6   23222111
      Norfolk Island       5   22222111
      Culgoora             8   23322112
      Gingin               8   32232122
      Camden               9   23332112
      Canberra             5   22321011
      Launceston          11   23342122
      Hobart               8   23332111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    24   23654300
      Casey               11   44222212
      Mawson              34   56523335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Periods at storm 
levels were observed in the Antarctic. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
will probably continue for the next two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the 
Southern Hemisphere on 9-Oct, and it is expected to remain enhanced 
today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct   115    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up 
to 15-25% for extended intervals during 9-Oct at most Australia 
region stations. Conditions are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values to enhanced throughout the region today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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