[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 2 09:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 1. AR 
2172 is located near the western limb and produced the largest 
flare of the day, a C6.7 event peaking at 03:06 UT. The flare 
forecast for Oct 2 is for low to moderate activity. There is 
a decreasing chance of an M class flare during the next 48 hours. 
Most of the visible active regions are stable or declining in 
magnetic flare potential. SOHO LASCO images recorded a strong 
CME leaving the eastern limb starting during 07 UT. This CME 
is not Earthward directed. It may have been associated with returning 
AR 2164 which is rotating toward the visible disk. The two prominent 
filaments visible in the western hemisphere of GONG H alpha images 
have remained stable. The solar wind speed has been fluctuating 
in the approximate range 350 km/s to 420 km/s and it is presently 
about 360 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been mostly in the 
range 5 nT to 7 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating 
mostly between -6 nT and +4 nT with intervals of negative bias.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21231321
      Cocos Island         5   11222220
      Darwin               8   22231322
      Townsville           7   11232222
      Learmonth            9   21232331
      Alice Springs        7   11231321
      Norfolk Island       6   21231211
      Culgoora             7   11231321
      Gingin               7   21222321
      Camden               7   12231321
      Canberra             5   11231211
      Launceston          10   22242322
      Hobart              10   33231321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    20   22264331
      Casey               14   44332222
      Mawson              19   53323334
      Davis               13   33433221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3424 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct     6    Quiet
04 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly between 
-6 nT and +4 nT with intervals of negative bias. Geomagnetic 
conditions were unsettled during Oct 1. The 3-day outlook is 
for mostly quiet conditions with unsettled intervals. Conditions 
will be more active at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to remain enhanced, especially in equatorial and tropical regions, 
during Oct 2. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is declining, suggesting 
a softening of ionospheric propagation support in comming days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced 
to strongly enhanced at low latitude stations during Oct 1. Conditions 
were enhanced up to 71% during 07 UT at Niue, and up to 44% during 
12 UT at Cocos Island. Conditions were mildly depressed at Sydney, 
Canberra and Hobart prior to 10 UT. This may have been a mild 
negative storm effect associated with the ongoing geomagnetic 
activity at high latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    76500 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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