[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 31 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 May.
No significant flares observed. Expect solar activity to remain
Very Low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows evidence
of a solar sector boundary (SSB) change as Phi flips from 180
to 270 to 90 degrees over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the IMF turned southward at approximately 1300UT with the
flip to 90 degrees and reaching approximately -10nT before returning
northward. The solar wind remained light over the last 24 hours
ranging between 310 and 360 km/s elevating slightly after the
SSB change.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 7 02212331
Cocos Island 6 02112330
Darwin 6 12112231
Townsville 6 12212231
Learmonth 7 02122331
Alice Springs 6 02112331
Norfolk Island 5 02212221
Culgoora 5 02212221
Gingin 6 02112331
Camden 6 12212230
Canberra 4 02212220
Launceston 7 02213330
Hobart 7 02213330
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 8 01323330
Casey 7 03122321
Mawson 17 12222363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1013 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 4 Quiet
01 Jun 4 Quiet
02 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region during the UT day, 30 May. The Unsettled period
was due to several hours of a weak reconnection between the IMF
and geomagnetic field. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
01 Jun 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
02 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 30 May
and is current for 31 May to 2 Jun. Variable depressions to 25%
observed in the Australian region as EUV levels decline due to
a decrease in sunspot numbers. Expect similar conditions over
the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than
predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list