[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 09:30:39 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 201/153


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            205/156

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares 
the greatest a C4 from region 2109 (S08E23). This region has 
grown in size and complexity and may produce M-class flares in 
the coming days. Solar wind conditions are ambient.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10010000
      Cocos Island         1   00120000
      Darwin               2   11020001
      Townsville           2   11120001
      Learmonth            1   10020000
      Alice Springs        0   00020000
      Norfolk Island       1   10010001
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Gingin               0   00010000
      Camden               1   11010001
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           1   10010001
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   10110000
      Mawson               6   30011004
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     5    Quiet
08 Jul     5    Quiet
09 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
overnight depressions of up to 20% seen in northern Australia. 
Conditions mostly near to predicted monthly values are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 287 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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