[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 14 issued 0158 UT on 29 Jan 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 29 12:58:57 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0409UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.6    0731UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.4    1138UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1247UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.5    1526UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M4.9    1940UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M2.6    2216UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129

COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. The M-class 
flares originated from the large, complex AR 11967 (S13 E71) 
which has an Fki classification. AR 11968 (N11 E72) produced 
one C flare. All sunspot regions appear stable. Possible high 
solar activity during the forecast period from AR 11967. Some 
weak CMEs were observed in available LASCO/STEREO images but 
none are considered Earth directed. SDO images show activity 
near the south-west limb from ~1600 UT onwards that looks like 
an eruptive filament. The solar wind was undisturbed until ~2130 
UT when speed increased to ~450 km/s. This is likely the influence 
of a recurrent coronal hole which appears much reduced in size 
to last rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11111223
      Cocos Island         2   11100112
      Darwin               3   10101222
      Townsville           5   11111223
      Learmonth            4   10101223
      Alice Springs        3   11001222
      Norfolk Island       2   00000122
      Culgoora             5   01111223
      Gingin               4   11100123
      Camden               4   01111123
      Canberra             3   01110113
      Launceston           6   11211223
      Hobart               4   11111222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   00111111
      Casey               12   34321223
      Mawson              10   22111244
      Davis                8   13222232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan     6    Quiet
31 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mild activity on 29 Jan due to a recurrent coronal hole; 
possible isolated active levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   No data 16-20 UT.
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-55% 07-15 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 15-25% 09-15, 21 UT at Darwin and 25-30%
      06-15 UT at Townsville. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 15-30% 05-15 UT. Perth frequencies enhanced
      15-30% enhanced 00-01, 10-15 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      73
Feb      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan   115    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan   115    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan   120    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 27 
January and is current for 28-30 Jan. Ionospheric propagation 
support is expected to be near normal to enhanced 29 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    38300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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