[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 25 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1205UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate,
with two low M class flares. There are 8 numbered active regions
with the largest and most flare productive being AR1982 (10S,
21W). The previously large and active region AR1967, also previously
AR1944, was due to return on 23rd Feb and there are indications
of it on the eastern limb, which should result in moderate flare
activity. Solar wind speed (Vsw) ranged between 450km/s and nearly
600km/s over the UT day, peaking at 06UT, possibly from a narrow
high-speed solar wind stream from small coronal hole CH604, which
is in a geoeffective position. A more latitudinally spread coronal
hole CH605, is slightly east of central meridian and should enhance
speeds in 4-5 days time. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF Bz) ranged between +5nT and -2nT, not particularly
effective for geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 4 22121002
Townsville 5 22131111
Learmonth 5 22122120
Alice Springs 4 12121112
Norfolk Island 3 12120021
Culgoora 4 12121111
Gingin 5 22122220
Camden 4 12121111
Canberra 3 12121101
Launceston 5 12132111
Hobart 5 12131111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 01142110
Casey 13 34432221
Mawson 12 33333231
Davis 14 34433220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 1232 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 6 Quiet
26 Feb 6 Quiet
27 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to conditions observed at mid and low latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active at high-latitudes,
probably due to briefly enhanced solar wind speed early in UT
day. Expected to be mostly Quiet conditions for 25Feb-27Feb in
the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CME activity from
AR1982.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ were near monthly
median values and northern near-equatorial regions were enhanced,
possibly due to slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. Ionising
EUV/X-ray somewhat enhanced by numerous (8) active regions on
the disc, so expect moderately enhanced MUFs. Geomagnetic activity
expected to be Quiet for 25-27th Feb so ionosphere not expected
to be too variable. Large region AR19867 is returning to the
east limb so moderate activity with M class flares is expected
and possible short wave fadeouts if it is as large as last rotation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 86600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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