[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 14 issued 2353 UT on 22 Feb 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 23 10:53:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity for 22Feb was Low with the largest event 
being a C7.7 at 1550UT. Solar wind speed (Vsw) ranged between 
430km/s to 460km/s over the UT day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +3nT 
and -5nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar wind speed 
is expected over the next 24 hours due to CME arrivals. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days 
with the chance of an M-class flare. Region 1967 (S13) which 
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 23 Feb. 
Also, region 1968 (N11) which previously produced M-flare(s) 
is due to return around this date.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222322
      Cocos Island         6   22211312
      Darwin               7   22221322
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            9   32222322
      Alice Springs        7   22221322
      Norfolk Island       7   22222222
      Culgoora             7   22221312
      Gingin               9   32222322
      Camden               8   22232312
      Canberra             7   22232212
      Launceston          10   22332322
      Hobart               8   22231312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   43233421
      Casey               17   44433322
      Mawson              22   45333424
      Davis               71   34933632

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3223 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb    12    Unsettled
24 Feb     6    Quiet
25 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible Active 
to Minor Storm periods dependent upon potential CME arrivals 
over the next 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions for 24Feb-25Feb 
otherwise.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 22 February 
and is current for 22-23 Feb. Observed MUF's for Northern AUS 
regions ranged from near monthly normal values to enhanced during 
local day and night over the last 24 hours. MUF's ranging from 
near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% observed for 
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with notable disturbed 
periods for Antarctic regions due to recent elevated geomagnetic 
activity. MUF's are expected to range from near monthly predicted 
values to enhanced by ~15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions 
over the 3 days. Ionospheric support is expected to recover for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours with near predicted 
monthly values and possible enhanced conditions for 24Feb-25Feb. 
Slight chance of depressed conditions during local night for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours should CME arrivals 
and increased geomagnetic activity eventuate. Similar outlook 
for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days. Further short-wave 
fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 499 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    21500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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