[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 14 issued 2352 UT on 20 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 21 10:52:59 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0802UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity for 20Feb was Moderate with the largest
event being a M3.0 flare from region 1976 (S14W81) directed westward
as seen in LASCO C2 imagery from 08UT onwards. A minor proton
event was also associated with this flare with >10MeV protons
crossing the threshold between 08-10UT. As region 1976 is approaching
the west limb, the associated CME could result in a shock arrival
on 22Feb. A partial full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
from 03UT onwards associated with the C3.3 flare from region
1982 (S09E34) with expected arrival as well on 22Feb. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) was ~510km/s at 00UT and increased to a maximum of
~~740km/s between 04UT-05UT. Solar wind speed then gradually declined
to be 500km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward between
03UT and 12UT reaching a maximum of -14nT before reducing in
magnitude and fluctuating between +/-3nT. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with the slight chance
of an M-class flare. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 19/1235UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 15434322
Cocos Island 12 24323312
Darwin 16 15433312
Townsville 17 25433322
Learmonth 22 15445322
Alice Springs 17 15433322
Norfolk Island 12 24333222
Culgoora 17 15334322
Gingin 19 14345323
Camden 14 14334322
Canberra 16 14344322
Launceston 22 254-5322
Hobart 19 144-5322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 29 24565322
Casey 19 25443223
Mawson 95 -8855435
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 42 4656 6322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 16 Active
22 Feb 22 Active
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last
24 hours due CME effects. Further CME arrivals/activity is expected
for the next 48hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be
Quiet to Active for 21Feb. Active conditions for 22Feb with possible
Minor Storm periods and Unsettled conditions for 23Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0840UT 20/02, Ended at 1005UT 20/02
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1040UT 20/02, Ended at 1110UT 20/02
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed for Northern AUS regions
during local day and night. Depressed MUF's observed for Southern
AUS/NZ regions during local night as well as occasional disturbed
periods during local day. Disturbed ionospheric conditions for
Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic storm activity. MUF's are
expected to range from near monthly predicted values to enhanced
by ~15% for Northern AUS regions over the next 24 hours. Depressed
MUF's to near monthly predicted values expected for Southern
AUS/NZ regions for the next 48hours hours and continued disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support
expected for 23Feb for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Further short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 89200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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