[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 14 issued 2342 UT on 23 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 24 10:42:46 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. C-class
flares were produced by regions 2241(S10 W62), 2242(S17 W85)
and 2244(S04E03). Regions 2241 and 2242 decreased in area and
magnetic complexity but still likely to produce M-class events.
Additional M-class events are possible from Beta-gamma region
2244. There is a slight chance of an X-class event over the next
few days. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at
1117UT stepping from ~400 to 550 km/s. This shock is probably
associated with the M1 class flare occurring on 21 Dec. Bz stayed
predominantly northward early in the UT day becoming negative(up
to -15nT) later in the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated over the next 24 hours. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 23/0900UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled with one isolated Storm period.
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 21262223
Cocos Island 12 21252123
Darwin 12 21252223
Townsville 16 21262223
Learmonth 27 21273234
Alice Springs 15 11162223
Norfolk Island 12 21152223
Culgoora 16 11262223
Gingin 15 21252234
Camden 18 21262224
Canberra 13 40151123
Hobart 13 21152224
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 10031124
Casey 27 43554334
Mawson 22 22243246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 5442 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
25 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 23 Dec, a weak (49nT)
impulse was observed at 1115UT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet to Unsettled across the Australian region during the UT
day, 23 December with an isolated Storm period observed ~1100UT.
Expect Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions today,24 Dec. 25-26
Dec will likely return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% 11-15UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible in the
mid to southern Australian regions, with a chance of short-wave
fadeouts for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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