[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 14 issued 2344 UT on 21 Dec 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 22 10:44:01 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0735UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1229UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 206/157


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            185/138

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 21 December, 
with two M-class flares from active regions 2242 (S18W58) and 
2241 (S11W34). The largest of the two was an M1.2/1N flare peaking 
at 0732UT from active region 2242. There was a eruptive prominence 
on the northeast limb observed in H-alpha and LASCO C2 imagery 
at approximately 0150UT, not expected to be geo-effective. Expect 
Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there is 
a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 340-450 km/s over the last 24 hours. A moderate 
shock was observed in the solar wind at 21/1823UT stepping from 
360 to 440 km/s. This shock is most likely associated with the 
M6.9 class flare occurring on 18/2158UT. The IMF Bz component 
ranged between +10/-13 nT. Note: ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 21/1630UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Region 
2222 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return 
around 22 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12222233
      Cocos Island         6   12112132
      Darwin               9   22222233
      Townsville           9   12223233
      Learmonth           13   22223244
      Alice Springs        8   12222233
      Norfolk Island       6   12212132
      Culgoora             9   22223133
      Gingin              10   22222243
      Camden               9   12223233
      Canberra             5   12212122
      Hobart              12   22333233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    21   12345443
      Casey               17   34432234
      Mawson              40   35724354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3211 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    25    Active
23 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 December 
and is current for 22 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled across the Australian region during the UT 
day, 21 December, however, the IPS magnetometer data observed 
a weak (10nT) impulse at 1912UT. Therefore, expect Unsettled 
to Active levels for the final hours of the UT day, 22 December. 
Antarctic region ranged from Unsettled to Minor Storm. Expect 
Unsettled to Active levels for the next 24 hours with isolated 
periods of Minor and Major Storm levels in the Australian region. 
23-24 December will likely return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high 
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for 
the next few days. There is a chance of a polar cap absorption 
today, 22 December, due to elevated 10MeV proton flux measured 
from the GOES spacecraft.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
23 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec   122    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued 
on 19 December and is current for 21-22 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 64 was issued on 21 December and is current for 21-23 
Dec. MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 21 
December. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed in the Australian 
region. Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed 
conditions on 22 December due to an increase in geomagnetic activity. 
23-24 December should return to near predicted to enhanced conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    67300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list