[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 14 issued 2343 UT on 17 Dec 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 18 10:43:38 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0110UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0151UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M8.7    0453UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    1902UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 192/144


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138

COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 17 December, 
with several M-class flares occurring from active regions 2241 
and 2242. The largest flare over the UT day, 17 December, was 
an M8.7/2B from active region 2242 (S18W02), peaking at 17/0451 
UT. This flare was associated with a CME observed on LASCO C2 
imagery first at 0512UT. The CME is expect to be hit the Earth 
in the middle of the UT day, 19 December, though the majority 
of the mass is expected to pass south of the ecliptic plane. 
The largest flare from active region 2241 (S10E17) was an M1.4/1N, 
peaking at 1901UT. Both regions have grown over the past 24 hours. 
Expect Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there 
is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind 
speed remained around 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF 
Bz component ranged between -/+5 nT. Expect the solar wind speed 
to remain near 400km/s or slightly below over the the next 24 
hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22110222
      Cocos Island         3   22110110
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Townsville           5   22111222
      Learmonth            4   22110212
      Alice Springs        4   22110212
      Norfolk Island       5   32100122
      Culgoora             5   2--10222
      Gingin               4   22110212
      Camden               5   22110222
      Canberra             4   32000122
      Hobart               6   22211222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   23211210
      Casey               25   45632232
      Mawson              15   44432222
      Davis               15   44432222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1111 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     6    Quiet
19 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active
20 Dec    16    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Mostly Quiet across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 17 December. Antarctic region 
was mostly Unsettled to Active early in the UT day and Quiet 
later in the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet levels of activity today, 
18 December. Early on 19 December expect the same, however later 
in the UT day expect geomagnetic activity to increase due to 
the arrival of a CME. When this occurs expect activity to increase 
to Unsettled to Active levels in the Australian region with isolated 
cases of Minor to Major storm conditions at higher latitudes 
for 19-20 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high 
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec    80    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 17 
December and is current for 18-20 Dec. MUFs were near predicted 
to enhanced over the UT day 17 December. Isolated cases of sporadic 
E were observed in the eastern Australian regions. Near monthly 
predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values are expected for the 
next 2 days. Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed 
conditions on 20 December due an increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    91800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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