[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 18 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 flare from region 2046 (N08W66). No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed hovered around 300 km/s and
the IMF Bz component varied between -7 nT and +8 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11123101
Cocos Island 3 11122101
Darwin 4 11123101
Townsville 6 22123111
Learmonth 4 21123100
Alice Springs 4 11123100
Norfolk Island 4 21022112
Culgoora 4 11122111
Gingin 4 10123200
Camden 4 11023101
Canberra 2 11022100
Launceston 3 11023100
Hobart 3 00023100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00004100
Casey 6 23213100
Mawson 5 31012300
Davis 4 21122200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 5 Quiet
19 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
20 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled period
during 12-15 UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on
18-Aug. An increase in plasma density from a filament eruption
on 15-Aug could lead to more active conditions from early 19-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
19 Aug 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Aug 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August
and is current for 16-18 Aug. Moderate MUF depressions were observed
overnight in the north and during daytime in the south. MUF depressions
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 18900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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