[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 8 09:30:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed during
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C1 flare at 0552
UT from region 2130(S08W54). Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from around 430 to 350 km/s during the UT day today and
the Bz component of IMF varied between +3/-5 nT during this period,
staying southwards for relatively longer periods of time. No
earthward directed CME was observed today. There are currently
six sunspot groups on the visible solar disc. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels with some possibility of isolated
M-class event during the next 3 days. Some strengthening in solar
wind stream may be observed on 8 and 9 August due to the possibility
of a coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11122011
Cocos Island 2 1111001-
Darwin 2 1111100-
Townsville 3 2112200-
Learmonth 4 2122101-
Alice Springs 3 11111021
Norfolk Island 3 -0022020
Culgoora 3 11112021
Gingin 3 1111201-
Camden 4 11122021
Canberra 3 11022020
Launceston 4 11122021
Hobart 3 11122020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 0002300-
Casey 5 1321111-
Mawson 10 32311233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2332 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 7 Quiet
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet during the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days with some possibility of slight enhancement
in geomagnetic activity due to a coronal hole effect on 8 and
9 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
last 24 hours with MUFs mostly close to the predicted monthly
values. Some depressions in MUFs were observed during local night
at low latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days with some possibility of minor
degradations in the high and possibly some mid latitude locations
due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on
8 and 9 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 88 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian region during the last 24 hours with MUFs mostly
close to the predicted monthly values. Some depressions in
MUFs were observed during local night in the northern
Australian regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days across the Aus/NZ regions
with some possibility of minor degradations in the southern
regions due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on 8 and 9 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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