[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 6 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed during
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C2 flare at 2017
from region 2132(S21W07). Solar wind mostly stayed between 450
and 500 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component of
IMF varied between +/-6 nT during this period. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels with some possibility of isolate
M-class event during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22212331
Cocos Island 6 22211230
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 8 22212332
Learmonth 8 22223231
Alice Springs 6 22212230
Norfolk Island 6 22212221
Culgoora 8 22212331
Gingin 9 22213241
Camden 8 22212331
Canberra 7 21212330
Launceston 9 22223331
Hobart 9 22223331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 12 11244420
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 22 44523343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 2423 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 6 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods. Some Unsettled periods can be expected for
another day before returning to mostly Quiet.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
UT day today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Some depressed periods during local night were observed in northern
and equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 87500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list