[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 31 10:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:**RED** ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Low.
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar regions have decreased in complexity during 30
October and mostly Low levels of solar activity are expected
for 31 October with the chance of M-class flares. CME activity
observed in association with recent flares is expected to have
predominantly glancing blows, with the most significant impact
expected early in the UT day of 31 October. The CME observed
in association with the X2-flare of 29 October does not appear
to be earthward directed. Solar wind speeds have been predominantly
low and are expected to increase early in the UT day of 31 October
with the arrival of CMEs. The IMF had a sustained southward period
during 30 October which did not appear associated with the anticipated
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 12333323
Cocos Island 6 12222222
Darwin 10 12233323
Townsville 12 22333323
Learmonth 12 12234323
Alice Springs 10 11233323
Culgoora 11 11333323
Camden 13 12343323
Canberra 7 01233222
Launceston 14 12344323
Hobart 13 12343323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 01365521
Casey 18 34433333
Mawson 16 13333443
Davis 17 23443423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0002 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 25 Mostly Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor
Storm periods possible and Major storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
01 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 30 Oct to 1 Nov. Geomagnetic activity was
mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active levels observed
at some locations over the Australian region during 30 October.
Isolated storm periods were observed at high latitudes during
30 October in response to a sustained period of southward IMF.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase early in the UT
day of 31 October with the anticipated arrival of CMEs. Minor
storm periods are possible for the Australian region and Major
storm periods are possible for high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next few days with a small chance of SWFs. Some depressions
may be observed during 31 October - 1 November in response to
anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 75 Isolated depressions at times otherwise mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
01 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 32 was issued
on 30 October and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. HF conditions
have been mostly normal to enhanced with some isolated depressions
due to slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. HF conditions
are expected to be variable during 31 October with some isolated
depressions early in the UT day and possible enhancements later
in the UT day followed by further depressions around dawn, pending
the arrival time of an anticipated CME. Short wave fadeouts are
still possible for 31 October with a small chance of isolated
M-flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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