[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 13 issued 2338 UT on 25 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 26 10:38:48 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0303UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.7 0801UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0955UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1016UT possible lower European
X2.1 1504UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1710UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.3 1921UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.9 2058UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity is at high levels. New region 1882(S08E59)
produced two X-class flares; an X1.7 at 0801 UT and an X2.1 at
1503UT today. It also produced five M-class flares, the largest
was an M2.9 at 0302UT. This flare and the the X1.7 flare were
associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps. Numerous C-class
flares were observed from region 1875(N08W23). The X2 flare was
also associated with a Type II and type IV radio bursts and a
halo CME observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery ~1530UT.
This may strike the Earth with an estimated arrival on 29 October.
A Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) occurred around 0230UT. A
series of CMEs observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery
after 0300 UT,none is expected to be geoeffective. Further M-class
flares are expected and an X-class flare is possible from region
1882 during the next few days. Region 1875 may produce additional
M-class events. ACE data show the solar wind speed over the reporting
period below 350 km/s with the north-south IMF mainly in the
+/-4nT range. There are at least four inbound CMEs, however they
are all weak so should provide only glancing blows to the geomagnetic
field during the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100002
Cocos Island 1 01100001
Darwin 2 11200012
Townsville 3 22100012
Learmonth 2 11200002
Alice Springs 2 12100012
Culgoora 0 1100000-
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 1000000-
Launceston 1 1210000-
Hobart 1 1200000-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Casey 9 34410011
Mawson 3 12100013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0101 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 12 Unsettled
27 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region. Possible increase in activity over the next 24 hours
due to possible CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs. Higher latitudes may experience
some degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next 3 days. Possible SWFs over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 31800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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