[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 4 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 03 October.
The largest flare was a C1.8-class X-ray flare occurring at 03/2023UT.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days.
The solar wind decreased from 580 to 400 km/s and is expected
remain at this level or slightly below for the next several days.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
northward over the last 24 hours. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO
and STEREO imagery early in the UT day, 03 October, one to the
NW and the other to the SE neither are expected to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 30000221
Cocos Island 3 30000220
Darwin 4 31000222
Townsville 4 31000221
Learmonth 6 41010221
Alice Springs 4 31000221
Culgoora 4 30000221
Gingin 5 40000211
Camden 2 20000121
Canberra 3 30000121
Launceston 3 31000121
Hobart 3 30000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 41000010
Casey 12 53221221
Mawson 11 53010321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 43 5753 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 6 Quiet
05 Oct 6 Quiet
06 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 2 October and
is current for 2-4 Oct. Note CME arrived early, therefore geomagnetic
activity settled earlier than expected. The geomagnetic activity was
Quiet to Unsettled during the UT day, 03 October. Expect geomagnetic
activity to be mostly quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0450UT 30/09, Ended at 0440UT 02/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 24 was issued
on 2 October and is current for 3-4 Oct. Note CME arrived early,
therefore HF conditions returned to normal predicted values
earlier than expected. Expect a return to near predicted MUF
values for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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