[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 13 issued 2348 UT on 30 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 1 09:48:51 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 30 September,
however there was a C1.2-class X-ray flare which occurred late
on 29 September at 2339UT. This flare was associated with a 35
degree erupting solar filament in the northwest quadrant observed
in GONG H-alpha imagery. There was also an associated partial
halo CME observed on C2 and C3 LASCO imagery. This activity was
followed by the 10MeV proton flux levels exceeding 10 PFU at
30/0505UT and elevating to 181 PFU at 30/2005UT. Riometer data
shows polar cap absorption in progress. The solar wind ranged
between 280 and 240 km/s over the last 24 hours and the Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Culgoora 1 11100000
Gingin 1 11100000
Camden 1 21100000
Canberra 1 21100000
Hobart 7 33132002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 7 24310011
Mawson 5 32100023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 16 Active
03 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet over the UT
day 30 September. Expect geomagnetic activity to be mostly quiet
to unsettled till late on 02 October or early 03 October when
geomagnetic condition are expected to reach minor storm levels
due to coronal mass ejection observed late on 29 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 30 09 2013 0505UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: PCA in progress 30 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region
30 September. Expect these condition to continue for the next
three days with possible depressions late on 03 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 270 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 13700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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