[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 13 issued 2344 UT on 30 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 31 09:44:59 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Very Low solar flare activity was observed during 30
May with only B-class flares observed. Solar activity is expected
to be predominantly Very Low for the next couple of days with
the chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
during 30 May. Solar wind speeds continued to decline during
30 May from approximately 450 km/s down to 350 km/s. The IMF
Bz remained predominantly neutral during 30 May. Solar wind speeds
are expected to increase during the latter half of 31 May and
into 1 June as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 2 2-110010
Darwin 1 01110101
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 0 10010000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 1 10000101
Gingin 0 00000010
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 11111121
Mawson 2 20000021
Davis 6 22211131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 16 Initially Quiet becoming Unsettled to Active
with the chance of Minor Storm periods in the
latter half of the UT day
01 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 30 May and
is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet for the first half of the UT day of
31 May then increase as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position. There is the possibility of Minor Storm periods at
high latitudes during the latter half of 31 May and into 1 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 31 May
with slightly degraded conditions at times particularly during
the latter half of 31 May UT. More significantly degraded conditions
are expected for 1 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 55 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued
on 30 May and is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected for 31 May with isolated slight depression
at times, particularly in the latter half of 31 May UT. More
significant depressions are possible for 1 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 92200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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