[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 13 issued 2348 UT on 09 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 10 09:48:05 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with numerous
C-class events. The largest being a C9.0 event at 2316UT from
a region yet to be identified at the time of this report. Further
flare activity included a C3.4 at 0523UT from region 1736 and
a C2.7 at 1742UT from region 1744. Solar activity is expected
to range between Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with a small
chance of M-class events. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bz component ranged between +3nT and -4nT over the UT day with
notable southward period between 07UT-20UT. Solar wind speed
declined from 528km/s at 00UT to be 460km/s at the time of this
report. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the next
24 hours. Region 1726 (N13) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 10 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 22221111
Alice Springs 3 11211011
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 4 21211111
Camden 2 11120000
Canberra 2 11120000
Hobart 3 11121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00030000
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 7 23322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3221 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 5 Quiet
11 May 5 Quiet
12 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours with notable enhancements
for IPS Cocos Is during local day. Depressed conditions during
local night for Northern AUS as well as Southern AUS/NZ regions.
MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values over the next
3 days with further chance of depressed ionospheric conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions during local night
and enhanced periods for Cocos and Niue stations during local
day. Short wave fadeouts possible with reasonable chance of M
flares from active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 83600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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