[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 30 09:30:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 100/48

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Only a C1.1 flare from fast growing region 1781 (N22 
W18) at 1609 UT. One, weak CME observed at 1309 UT in STEREO 
images that will not be geo-effective. ACE data show the IMF 
north-south component maintained its southward bias, -10 to -12 
nT, until ~1130 UT after which it ranged between +5 to -10 nT. 
Wind speed ranged between 340 to 500 km/s and is currently 490 
km/s. The solar wind may become mildly disturbed late 30 Jun 
due to the 28 Jun CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to major 
storm

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      26   33365332
      Cocos Island        18   33254233
      Darwin              25   33464332
      Townsville          27   33-65332
      Learmonth           39   33-75343
      Alice Springs       29   33-65333
      Norfolk Island      27   34-65222
      Culgoora            27   33-65332
      Camden              36   33-75332
      Canberra            25   33-65222
      Hobart              38   34-75332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    82   34696433
      Casey               15   32242244
      Mawson              35   66333353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin              43   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27   5412 3545     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun    18    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels possible.
01 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled
02 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Storm levels on 29 Jun due to almost 28 hours southward 
(to -12 nT) IMF.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times 30 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jun    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
      Depressions 25-35% 13-14, 16 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-03 UT, then enhanced
      mostly 20-35%. Some night spread F.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 08-15,
      17, 23 UT at Darwin and 04-05, 11, 13-14, 16-17, 20 UT
      at Townsville. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced except at
      Hobart and Perth where frequencies were mostly 15-35%
      depressed. Hobart affected by spread F most of the period.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere due to absorption. Sporadic E prevalent.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    67    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul    67    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    67    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible on 30 Jun. Expect degraded 
propagation conditions at times, especially during night hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    20700 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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