[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 30 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Only a C1.1 flare from fast growing region 1781 (N22
W18) at 1609 UT. One, weak CME observed at 1309 UT in STEREO
images that will not be geo-effective. ACE data show the IMF
north-south component maintained its southward bias, -10 to -12
nT, until ~1130 UT after which it ranged between +5 to -10 nT.
Wind speed ranged between 340 to 500 km/s and is currently 490
km/s. The solar wind may become mildly disturbed late 30 Jun
due to the 28 Jun CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to major
storm
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 26 33365332
Cocos Island 18 33254233
Darwin 25 33464332
Townsville 27 33-65332
Learmonth 39 33-75343
Alice Springs 29 33-65333
Norfolk Island 27 34-65222
Culgoora 27 33-65332
Camden 36 33-75332
Canberra 25 33-65222
Hobart 38 34-75332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 82 34696433
Casey 15 32242244
Mawson 35 66333353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 43 (Unsettled)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27 5412 3545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 18 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels possible.
01 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
02 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Storm levels on 29 Jun due to almost 28 hours southward
(to -12 nT) IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times 30 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Depressions 25-35% 13-14, 16 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-03 UT, then enhanced
mostly 20-35%. Some night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 08-15,
17, 23 UT at Darwin and 04-05, 11, 13-14, 16-17, 20 UT
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced except at
Hobart and Perth where frequencies were mostly 15-35%
depressed. Hobart affected by spread F most of the period.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere due to absorption. Sporadic E prevalent.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 67 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 67 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible on 30 Jun. Expect degraded
propagation conditions at times, especially during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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