[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 13 issued 2326 UT on 18 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 19 10:26:44 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity was observed over 
the UT day 18 Feb. There are 6 active regions on the disc, although 
each less than 100 millionths of disc, so only AR1675 (N13E04) 
holds much flare potential. A large filament in the SW quadrant 
may have CME potential. A narrow trans-equatorial coronal hole 
extends across central solar meridian and may produce minor solar 
wind disturbances days two and three. Solar wind speed was steady 
at around 350km/s. The Bz component of the IMF had an extended 
southwards period 17-20UT of around -6nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21011112
      Darwin               2   10001012
      Townsville           5   2212211-
      Learmonth            4   2211211-
      Alice Springs        2   2001110-
      Norfolk Island       3   -1111112
      Gingin               2   1101210-
      Camden               2   20001112
      Canberra             1   10001002
      Hobart               2   10002112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   0000100-
      Casey               10   3432210-
      Mawson               4   2211210-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   1211 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     6    Quiet
20 Feb     7    Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods.
21 Feb     7    Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods.

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes. 
Solar wind parameters remained mostly nominal with a brief moderately 
negative Bz excursion 17-20UT. A narrow trans-equatorial coronal 
hole may enhance solar wind speed days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions observed at all latitudes 
Feb 18.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Briefly enhanced to 30% 05-07UT.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Recovering after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
20 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Widespread MUF depressions observed over the UT day 
Feb 18. MUF's recovering after local dawn Feb 19, with further 
disturbance/depressions possible next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    35900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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