[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 13 issued 2336 UT on 16 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 17 10:36:30 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 16
February. Expect Very Low activity for the next three days. A
weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1110UT on 16 February.
Solar wind speed ranged from 320km/s to 440km/s over the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF dipped to -10nT at 1532UT
on 16 February. Shock was possibly associated with 12 degree
disappearing solar filament noted by Learmonth Solar Observatory
late on 12 February in the south west quadrant of the solar disc.
Expect moderate to light solar wind over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21113322
Darwin 7 11113322
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 10 22124322
Alice Springs 7 21113322
Norfolk Island 7 21013322
Gingin 6 21013321
Camden 6 11113321
Canberra 5 10003321
Hobart 6 11013321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 00021520
Casey 12 33223332
Mawson 19 22113643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0111 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 6 Quiet
18 Feb 6 Quiet
19 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
levels with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels during
the UT day, 16 February. IPS magnetometer data for 16 Feb, showed
a weak (13nT) impulse at 1210UT. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect
possible minor depressions at high latitudes for today, 17 February,
otherwise mostly normal ionospheric conditions for next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 18500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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