[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 13 issued 2342 UT on 14 Feb 2013

Fri Feb 15 10:42:14 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 100/48

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: The only significant flare activity of the period was 
a low level C flare observed at 0430UT possibly from region 1670(N17W69). 
The two numbered regions on the visible disc are declining with 
alpha or beta magnetic complexity. No new regions. Mostly Very 
Low level solar activity is expected for the next three days. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO and 
STEREO images. Solar wind speed was in the nominal 340-400km/s 
range. IMF Bz was mostly southward(to -9nT) until ~1400UT then 
normal, largely in the +/-4nT range. This structure is probably 
associated with the 9th Feb CME arrived with strong Bz southwards 
and possibly still in effect. Solar wind is expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22432121
      Darwin               9   22432112
      Townsville          12   23433222
      Learmonth           12   33432222
      Alice Springs       11   32432122
      Norfolk Island       8   22332221
      Gingin              11   32432222
      Camden              10   22433121
      Canberra             7   22422011
      Hobart              11   33433110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    20   23455300
      Casey               16   53432222
      Mawson              25   44532335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2211 1144     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb     5    Quiet
16 Feb     5    Quiet
17 Feb     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels with one isolated Active period ~ 08UT. Unsettled to Active 
activity occurred in the first half of the UT day, 14 Feb. This 
activity was associated with mild southwards Bz. Conditions during 
the second half of the UT day were mostly Quiet and are expected 
to remain so for the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Feb    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect 
mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    39500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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