[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 31 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             108/58             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous day. A long 
duration C8 flare from region 1836(N11E30) occurred beginning 
at 02UT. A CME was seen in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
and STEREO coronagraphs. The bulk of the material is directed 
to the east of the Earth, however we are likely to be clipped 
by the edge of this event, with an estimated arrival time around 
09UT on the 1st of September. A CIR ahead of a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream was seen in ACE data arriving midway through 
the 30th of August UT. The IMF Bt has stayed below 10nT with 
several southward excursions. Wind speeds have been up to 450 
km/s. The high speed stream is expected to be in effect for the 
next 24-48 hours. Solar flare activity is expected to be Low 
with a small chance of M class flares over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122222
      Cocos Island         6   11232221
      Darwin               8   11232223
      Townsville           9   21233223
      Learmonth            6   10122322
      Alice Springs        6   11132222
      Norfolk Island       4   11122112
      Culgoora             5   10122222
      Gingin               7   10122323
      Camden               6   11222222
      Canberra             4   00122222
      Hobart               5   10122222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   00102221
      Casey               10   23332222
      Mawson              21   21212356
      Davis               19   12332355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1001 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    15    Unsettled
01 Sep    25    Active
02 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet in mainland 
Australia. Unsettled conditions may be expected over the next 
day due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. An expected 
arrival of the edge of a CME on the 1st of September may bring 
Active conditions on arrival, followed by continued Unsettled 
conditions into the 2nd of September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed conditions may be 
experienced in southern regions on the 1st and 2nd of September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    47000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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