[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 13 issued 2334 UT on 18 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 19 09:34:45 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare at 1131UT. Region 1818(S07W41), the most complex
of the visible solar regions has simplified somewhat, but is
still beta-gamma-delta class. Solar activity is expected to be
Low 19 August, with the chance of an isolated M-class flare.
Solar wind speeds continued to decline slowly during 18 August
and are expected to continue this trend during 19 August. IMF
Bz remained stable,fluctuating within the range +/-2nT. Further
analysis of the CME associated with the M3 flare from region
1818 reported yesterday indicates it does not have significant
Earthward directed component, a glancing blow at best may arrive
in the latter half of day two (20 August).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11220121
Cocos Island 2 21110010
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 2 11210110
Alice Springs 3 11220111
Norfolk Island 3 21220011
Culgoora 4 11220121
Gingin 5 21220221
Camden 4 11220121
Canberra 2 01120011
Hobart 4 12220021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11320011
Casey 9 24222221
Mawson 20 43332245
Davis 18 33442144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 7 Quiet
20 Aug 12 Unsettled
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
Possible increase to Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions
during the latter half of day two (20 August) due to the CME
reported yesterday(17 August).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours with a small chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a small chance of SWFs. Minor degradations possible
day three Antarctic/S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 686 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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